A generalized system of prognosis curves to facilitate utilizing the survival-rate criterion
Payne, E. E. L., R. P. (1974). A Generalized System of Prognosis Curves to Facilitate Utilizing the Survival-Rate Criterion. [Journal Article]. Operations Research, 22(3), 468-477.
This paper develops a method for representing prognosis data and determining victim survival rate as a function of victim category, time, and treatment. Such a determination allows the evaluation of a community's emergency care system using the criterion of patient survival rather than some secondary evaluation criterion used in the absence of prognosis data. Typical prognosis curves are developed that express the probability of death from a specific illness or injury as a function of time and care received. Finally, examples are provided that show the probabilistic relation of mortality to time under varying assumptions of treatment and victim category.