A semi-markov model for primary health care manpower supply prediction
1987
Management Science
2
33
149-160
Journal_Article
Family_Practice||Pediatrics||Gynecology||Obstetrics||Delivery_of_Health_Care,_Integrated||Regional_Health_Planning
Probability_Markov_processes||Forecasting
No
No
Article Link
Trivedi, V. M., Ira; Bass, Richard; Brooks, John. (1987). A Semi-Markov Model for Primary Health Care Manpower Supply Prediction. [Journal Article]. Management Science, 33(2), 149-160.
In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, legislators, and regulators, for objective decision making.