A Decision Simulation Model for Health Services Management
J Oper Res Soc
This model has been designed to assist decision making in the Health Services by predicting the effects on a local population of proposed policy decisions. Policy decisions are considered to: ; 1. Change the amount of certain resources available, e.g. manpower, hospital beds; or ; 2. Alter the methods of using resources, e.g. changing the emphasis of health care to the community rather than the hospital; or ; 3. Change the characteristics of illnesses, e.g. by vaccination or screening.; ; The model predicts the incidence of morbidity and mortality in a specified population and the changes in resource use over a period of years. Thus it is possible to see the long term effects of changes in popu